Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3894
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3894 · SMF → AUS
departs 2:59 PM PT · arrives 8:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29 41%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 4%
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.