Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3953
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
WN 3953 · HAV → TPA
departs 12:35 PM CDT · arrives 2:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave HAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
HAV (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.03 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.