Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3953
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3953 · HAV → TPA
departs 12:34 PM CDT · arrives 2:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave HAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at TPA that day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HAV (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.06 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.