WN 4486 · SAN → AUS

departs 9:14 AM PT · arrives 2:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

AUS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4486 · SAN → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?