Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4486
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4486 · SAN → AUS
departs 9:01 AM PT · arrives 1:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
9am departures from SAN are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.