Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4594
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4594 · BWI → CLT
departs 7:52 PM ET · arrives 9:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 20%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 44%
Sat 10/31 36%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.