WN 487 · STL → MCI

departs 3:04 PM CT · arrives 4:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from STL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 487 · STL → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?