Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 487
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 487 · STL → MCI
departs 3:00 PM CT · arrives 4:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from STL are often late
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.