Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 489
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
WN 489 · STL → MSP
departs 9:42 PM CT · arrives 11:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,600 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.