Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 869 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 4:52 PM PT (42 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Thursday, October 29 Yesterday

WN 869 · BUR → LAS

departs 3:56 PM PT · arrives 5:08 PM PT

Your aircraft is N255WN (B737), coming in as WN 3903 from SMF: landed 3:58 PM PT.

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

90% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,571 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 869 · BUR → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?