Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 422
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
XL 422 · UIO → MIA
departs 7:16 PM -05 · arrives 12:33 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave UIO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO
Weather at each end
UIO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.