Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1717
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 1717 · LAX → GDL
departs 8:00 PM PT · arrives 12:21 AM CST
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.01 in
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.