Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1717
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
Y4 1717 · LAX → GDL
departs 8:00 PM PT · arrives 12:19 AM CST
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 72h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Arrivals into GDL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.