Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 751
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
Y4 751 · SAT → MEX
departs 8:50 PM CT · arrives 10:01 PM CST
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sun 11/1 8%
Mon 11/2 10%
Tue 11/3 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from SAT are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.13 in
MEX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.