Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 751
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
Y4 751 · SAT → MEX
departs 8:49 PM CT · arrives 10:01 PM CST
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 8%
Mon 11/2 10%
Tue 11/3 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MEX?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
8pm departures from SAT are often late
↓
Arrivals into MEX at that hour are usually not late
↓
Y4's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MEX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.