Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6209 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

YV 6209 · IAD → CLT

departs 5:38 PM ET · arrives 7:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6209 · IAD → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?