Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3445
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 3445 · EWR → BTV
departs 10:00 PM ET · arrives 11:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BTV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BTV?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at EWR that day
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
BTV (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.