Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3445
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 3445 · EWR → BTV
departs 9:59 PM ET · arrives 11:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at BTV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BTV?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
BTV (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.