YX 3455 · CLT → ORD

took off 6:19 PM ET · expected to land 6:59 PM CT (scheduled 5:29 PM ET → 6:45 PM CT)

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

98% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
2%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
71%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3455 · CLT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?