YX 3478 · CLT → EWR

departs 2:24 PM ET · arrives 4:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3478 · CLT → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?