Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 3493 · EWR → CLT
departs 10:25 AM ET · arrives 12:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sat 10/31 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↑
CLT is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.