Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4473 · LGA → DCA
departs 7:56 PM ET · arrives 9:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 35%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.