Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4509 · DCA → CLE
departs 5:25 PM ET · arrives 7:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 15%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
CLE (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.