Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4555
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 4555 · DCA → SYR
departs 3:37 PM ET · arrives 5:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 24%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SYR?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SYR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.