Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4561 · LGA → CHS
departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 10:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sun 11/1 49%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at CHS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CHS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
CHS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.