Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4561 · LGA → CHS
departs 8:14 PM ET · arrives 10:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 49%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±14 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at CHS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CHS?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
CHS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.