Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4590
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4590 · CAE → DCA
departs 7:18 PM ET · arrives 9:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CAE
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day
Weather at each end
CAE (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.