YX 4590 · PIT → DCA

left the gate 7:44 PM ET · taxiing (scheduled 7:36 PM ET → 9:00 PM ET)

Your aircraft is N411YX (E75S), coming in as YX 4734 from JFK: landed 6:14 PM ET.

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from PIT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4590 · PIT → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?