Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4792
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4792 · LGA → ILM
departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 10:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 30%
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
ILM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.