Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4792
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4792 · LGA → ILM
departs 8:30 PM ET · arrives 10:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
ILM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.