Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5743
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 5743 · JFK → DCA
departs 9:20 PM ET · arrives 10:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 32%
Sat 10/31 32%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.