Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5747
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 5747 · DCA → LGA
departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 2:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 55%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.