Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5827
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 5827 · LGA → DCA
departs 9:01 PM ET · arrives 10:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 37%
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.