Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 5841 · DCA → BNA
departs 3:38 PM ET · arrives 4:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.