Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 5859 · JFK → DCA
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 45%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.