Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4913 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

9E 4913 · MSP → DSM

departs 6:22 PM CT · arrives 7:37 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,567 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4913 · MSP → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?