Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5036 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

9E 5036 · JFK → CLT

departs 7:56 PM ET · arrives 9:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5036 · JFK → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?