Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1288 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 1288 · DFW → PVR

departs 1:09 PM CT · arrives 2:50 PM CST

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at PVR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PVR?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ PVR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

PVR (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1288 · DFW → PVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVR?