AA 1389 · MIA → LGA

departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM ET

Your aircraft is N199UW (A321), coming in as AA 1800 from CUR: landed 6:51 PM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1389 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?