AA 1402 · TPA → PHX

took off 7:10 PM ET · expected to land 8:18 PM MT (scheduled 6:07 PM ET → 7:51 PM MT)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

97% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
3%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
62%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at TPA that day

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1402 · TPA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?