AA 1446 · EWR → MIA

took off 7:22 PM ET · expected to land 9:40 PM ET (scheduled 6:30 PM ET → 9:36 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1446 · EWR → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?