Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1582 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 1582 · DFW → SAT

departs 11:55 AM CT · arrives 1:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1582 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?