Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1582 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 1582 · DFW → SAT

departs 12:02 PM CT · arrives 1:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.08 in

SAT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1582 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?