Schedule: FAA flight plans.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1639
SCHEDULED
Friday, October 30 Today
AA 1639 · MIA → SFO
departs 8:52 PM ET · arrives 11:57 PM PT
Your aircraft is N402AN (A21N), coming in as AA 1717 from LAX: in the air, landing about 8:38 PM ET, 5 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/31 47%
Sun 11/1 73%
Mon 11/2 38%
Tue 11/3 31%
Wed 11/4 34%
Thu 11/5 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
93%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
93%
Leave 15+ late
100%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 65 min after the scheduled departure, about 44 min late from the gate after a typical 21-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 39%.
+0 pts
93%
Yes 93%
No 7%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 65 min after the scheduled departure, about 44 min late from the gate after a typical 21-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 38%.
−4 pts
100%
Yes 100%
No <1%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 65 min after the scheduled departure, about 44 min late from the gate after a typical 21-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 10%.
−3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.