AA 1641 · CLT → MEM

took off 9:37 PM ET · expected to land 9:47 PM CT (scheduled 8:57 PM ET → 9:52 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEM?

LIVE

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1641 · CLT → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?