Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1658 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 1658 · DFW → ELP

departs 10:52 AM CT · arrives 11:53 AM MT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±5 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Arrivals into ELP at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1658 · DFW → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?