Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1658 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 1658 · DFW → ELP

departs 11:06 AM CT · arrives 11:56 AM MT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into ELP at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

ELP (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1658 · DFW → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?