AA 1762 · PHL → MCI

took off 7:05 PM ET · expected to land 8:37 PM CT (scheduled 6:47 PM ET → 8:52 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1762 · PHL → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?