Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1762 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1762 · PHL → MCI

departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 9:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1762 · PHL → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?