AA 2003 · DFW → SEA

departs 7:34 PM CT · arrives 9:40 PM PT

Your aircraft is N534UW (A321), coming in as AA 1381 from GEG: landed 6:12 PM CT.

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.06 in

SEA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2003 · DFW → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?